Cheat Engine

[ipivb]

It seems many people, who have not actually looked into it, expect computers to keep getting faster and cheaper for the long term future. But this simply cannot be expected to continue for long.

A lot of things go into making a computer faster. Some of the major things are the fabrication process, architecture, and production cost. But these things are reaching their limit. We were lucky to get 32nm chips, and it does seem we are still on track for 22nm by the end of this year. But as for 16nm, you can probably forget about it... simply because of physical limitations. Architecture can only be optimized so much -- we're almost at that point. And chinese sweatshops will only work for so cheap, lately they've been demanding more money.

Some have suggested that we could use other materials besides silicon, but many agree it's a stretch and no one really knows how it would work. It is likely that prices will continue to drop as demand falls. But as for building faster computers... you can only throw so many CPUs on a single motherboard before it doesn't really improve the speed anymore (in a typical setting). Not to mention that while hard drives have improved in size, their speed has not caught up and this is typically the biggest bottleneck to most situations (like streaming video game graphics).

[elpacco]

Hard drives will start to die out in like 10-15 years (being very generous with that estimate) as SSDs will take their place.

[ipivb]

Yes true, that is the one thing I'm really looking forward to. And I'm shooting into the breeze here, but there is even a possibility that SSDs may be fast enough to eliminate the need for RAM.

[elpacco]

[Jorg hi]

Or an Imaginative idea will emerge, and a new generation of Computers will exist. With a much different style.

[Geri]

You are wrong. Intel has some technology that You wouldn't even dream about yet. Of course not for the average people, but this doesn't mean the technology is not existing. It is just not public to say so. The technology that they are developing for governments etc are amazing and way way more advanced than what You see on the PC market. They use completely other kind of materials for their high-end products. A next generation of computers will be introduced to the masses sooner or later.

(The technology that we use in PC's are ages old already. It is obvious that they don't release their best stuff to the people as it is not beneficial. They are always raising the standard level year by year but this doesn't mean this is their best, this just means that they want You to purchase a new, better processor every few years. Manufacturers are planning forward with decades in their business plans.)

[Radiation]

some good points made here. i do believe that all industries, not only computer-manufacturing ones, have products already ready to be released in 5-10 years...

it's just us, the consumer, that is being taken advantage of...


and yes, architecture is getting limited, the smaller they are going to get, the more errors there will be in data and electricity...

[hcavolsdsadgadsg]

[M.CORP]

Quantum Computers may replace traditional computers.
Due to they're ability to do lots of tasks at the same time.

[Radiation]

[ipivb]

True, elpacco, I was thinking that. It might be something like a SSD that is connected to the motherboard with a very fast connection, like RAM.

Ah Jorg Hi and Geri, my favorite couple. @Jorg Hi... well, it's hard to say if that's possible or not, but we have a lot of brilliant minds giving it a lot of thought and still we haven't gotten any imaginative ideas.
@Geri, ah the corporate conspiracist theory. I'm not doing any research here, but I'm willing to bet that governments don't spent a whole lot on computer technology that isn't available to the public. It wouldn't really have any purpose. There's little need for it. It doesn't take much to run simple programs like excel.

@slovach true that you can call a huge server farm "the most powerful computer in the world". But as you make a computer bigger, data takes longer to travel, and wouldn't get processed any faster. In other words, it'd be useless to the average consumer. It's only useful in applications where most information can be processed without needing to wait for other information to be processed first (like cracking a password). I'm sure you know this, I'm just pointing it out to everyone else.

@the last two posters: Quantum computers are still theoretical. However, multitasking is not their main advantage. As I just mentioned, heavy multitasking is only advantageous in applications where there is little previous input needed. This is why CPUs are only 2-8 cores, and GPUs have hundreds of cores. When you render a frame, each GPU core can be rendering a certain part of the screen. However, for something like gameplay logic, it would be impractical to have more than a half-dozen threads. Take something like phyiscs -- you can't calculate the position of a body until its previous position has been calculated, so splitting it amongst multiple cores would not help. Even if it were done, would make the code messy. GPUs can have so many cores because the hardware does all the work, not the programmer.

The idea behind quantum computers, from what I understand, is that they use qubits instead of bits. A bit is either a 1 or 0, but a qubit can be a 1, 0, or a superposition of these. This doesn't even begin to describe what quantum computers are about, and I can't even begin to understand anything more than that. But, to bring quantum computers from theory into reality seems all but impossible. Apparently in the real world, they really would be impossible... not just because they are difficult to build, but because of real-life variables that are not present in a theoretically perfect model.

[Geri]

[ipivb]

I agree that companies do time their releases to get the most profit.

After doing a little more research, it does seem that Intel is rich and has plans to construct a 14nm fabrication plant in Arizona (wont be ready until 2013). However, they're still using silicon. I'll admit that consumer CPUs may become two or three times as fast as they are now, but beyond that... it's quite a stretch to say that Moore's law will continue past 2015.

[Geri]

Not really, depending on the concept. If You remember the previous video about the "we will be robots" stuff that You have posted, You have seen what kind of implants are developed. Well that technology is at least 10 years old (at least that was the time when I heard it first).
Do You think they have stopped at this point? Obviously not.

And yeah the government has a good reason to support such developments if You look at the results, not to mention that they need some more advanced stuff than simple PCs and of course they don't manufacture and develop CPUs and other stuff by themselves. They just hire some company and how many company can do what Intel can? Not many. (Yeah the US has spent tons of money on the military for example but not the government is manufacturing the jet fighters. It is the same with computers.)

As for the marketing plans, it is not conspiracy but pure business. Guess You develop a processor with 20 cores. Will You release a CPU with 20 core immediately? Of course not. It is a basic rule in almost everything in life that You shouldn't play all Your cards at once. It is much better to slowly change the market and "improve" this or that slowly. And when the 20 core CPUs will come out, You have purchased like 10 processors in the meantime to always have the "latest" one. Also if You release the CPU with 20 cores and You don't have any better yet, what will You sell in next year (not to mention that Your competitors will immediately copy Your stuff)? People will want more (they always want more) and You cannot come up with any new development. So if they raise the standards slowly, they have a bunch of advanteges:

1. They get more money as people will buy newer stuff all the time.

2. People can always buy newer and newer stuff and brag about it for others (this is important in business).

3. They look like a rapidly growing and always developing innovative company, even when they sell ages old shit for You because it is good enough anyway and You think it is the best.

4. They have time to develop more advanced stuff and prepare for changing the concepts of the whole technology.

With all these benefits, just an idiot would publish the latest highest stuff immediately to loose lots of money and advantage over other companies.

(So the conclusion is that if they would not have the plans for the next 10-20 years, they would slow down. Achieving a point when they cannot show any new to the masses would be the worst possible scene. If they keep this pace, that means they can afford it because even if they stop developing, they have new stuff for the masses for a decade. Companies with billions of dollars did not became rich because they were fooling around without a plan.)

[kls85]

Intel has begun its construction on a $5 billion fab using 300mm wafers to make future processors based on the 14nm manufacturing process.

Moore's Law is still going strong.