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CLIFFORDS PREDICTION:BTC will average 8k by feb 11
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Clifford
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:53 pm    Post subject: CLIFFORDS PREDICTION:BTC will average 8k by feb 11 Reply with quote

gogo dont know shit. by feb 11, btc will be around 7-9k, 45% chance that's the floor, but the floor could be even lower.


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Missi0n
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You sure put in a lot of effort to not invest?
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Clifford
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Missi0n wrote:
You sure put in a lot of effort to not invest?
if you look beyond the unstable fluctuations of the minute and instead at the rolling trend, the value is consistently dropping at a rate of about $200 a day. while the depreciation of value is static, the sky high volatility has been slowly falling. this tells me there probably is a floor of 7-9k and will be met when the three models converge in mid/early february.

its too late to jump in on bitcoin, the early adopters are the ones who reap the rewards but the ones who come in late are left holding the boat up while it sinks. just like penny stocks, CCs are pump and dump schemes that grow exponentially as more people adopt, but when the bubble pops, it pops hard because everyone pulls out at once. If you want the inside scoop, go read drudge and listen to roger stone.

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Clifford
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 3:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

right on track


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gogodr
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2018 9:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

lets see, I estimated that it won't go beyond floor again which was 10k and will raise up according to the trend I analyzed.

I put my money where my predictions are and I bought at 12k cex.io with expectation for it to grow at least back to 20k in 4 months.

this was my last analysis after the dip for the chinese new year. (I didn't go public on this one tho, and it is in spanish, since it was for my personal archive)
https://i.imgur.com/aWCafHh.jpg
just a couple of days after that, the trend stabilized itself and I bought.
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Clifford
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gogodr wrote:
lets see, I estimated that it won't go beyond floor again which was 10k and will raise up according to the trend I analyzed.

I put my money where my predictions are and I bought at 12k cex.io with expectation for it to grow at least back to 20k in 4 months.

this was my last analysis after the dip for the chinese new year. (I didn't go public on this one tho, and it is in spanish, since it was for my personal archive)
https://i.imgur.com/aWCafHh.jpg
just a couple of days after that, the trend stabilized itself and I bought.
you keep making wrong predictions and move the goal posts every time you get proved wrong. this shit is crashing. will be 8k by feb 11. its as clear as spring water.


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gogodr
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

time will tell.
So far I think my predictions have been accurate.
I posted 2 here.

The first being one I made in the middle of the mini bubble. With a conservative expectation of a crash I 'predicted' (more like deduced that at the moment) it was a good time to buy since BTC did hit a floor and then stabilized which meant that after being at the peak of the bubble it went down enough to have a low risk of investment. To explain in simple terms the analysis: 'after a big hit, it being up or down, a correction must follow up and then a decrease in volatility marking a trend' and for bitcoin a good timeframe for samples is 3 days or 1~2 weeks.

My second 'prediction' was after the latest dip, I predicted that it won't cross the 10k floor (which is still holding in my numbers, take it with a grain of salt because I use Cex.io and not gdax so if you use gdax, my floor is around 9k~) Same analysis as before, but this time with seasonality.
There has been a trend and not only with bitcoin but with stocks and other investing platforms, that chinese people take out money from trade to spend it in the chinese new year. The analysis I made was of correlation with the growth rate and the impact of the chinese new year on the bitcoin price.

It was a direct relationship where if the rate of growth was bigger, the dip for the chinese new year was bigger. aggregated to that, we were in the middle of correcting a bubble. It didn't pop for me, it just went back down naturally and I honestly think that in a couple of months we will see bitcoin back up to 20k no problem.

That's why after the first rule: after a big hit follows a correction, it corrected positively after hitting the 10k floor, then volatility decreased a lot and after the volatility decreased I bought. After I bought, price went down slowly which is healthy because I bought at the first correction from the bit hit, I expected it to come down a little more, and then start growing back after it finishes correcting itself.

And since I am confident in my 'prediction' I am buying even more bitcoin this month Smile
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Clifford
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

9.0k


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gogodr
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

indeed, today it went lower than the floor I estimated which makes my investment a little more high risk than what I expected, but still I have no doubts it will go back up.
Goes without saying that I plan to buy more, now that the price is even lower.
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Clifford
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

gogodr wrote:
indeed, today it went lower than the floor I estimated which makes my investment a little more high risk than what I expected, but still I have no doubts it will go back up.
Goes without saying that I plan to buy more, now that the price is even lower.
It might correct itself to my trendline which says it should be 9.7k for today, but it's not coming back up back up ever again to the highs it reached in december. BTC has peaked.

8.6k



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Brolock
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Clifford wrote:
gogodr wrote:
indeed, today it went lower than the floor I estimated which makes my investment a little more high risk than what I expected, but still I have no doubts it will go back up.
Goes without saying that I plan to buy more, now that the price is even lower.
It might correct itself to my trendline which says it should be 9.7k for today, but it's not coming back up back up ever again to the highs it reached in december. BTC has peaked.

8.6k
if btc reaches 20k+ again will you leave CEF
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Adnihil
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No idea about how people calculate these predictions, but isn't it worth noting that the recent price drops are largely due to random events like Asian countries banning Bitcoin and stuff? Doesn't that just mean that the price is currently low because of Asian companies (and people who are seeing the value dropping) selling all their bitcoins, and that it will definitely go back up again? Or is it more likely that an other crypto currency will take its spot, and why?

Don't know anything about the technology behind crypto currencies either, but is it theoretically possible to reduce the transaction times, fees, and energy use through some software or hardware changes?
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Clifford
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

8.2k

@Adnihil gogo is approaching bitcoin like an ordinary investment, but it should not be treated as such. economics is sociology. usually when you invest in a stock of a company, you have confidence you won't lose money because the company is profitable going to have growth. because bitcoin has no substance, its been fueled by internet hype attracting a constant influx of new investors. once the bubble pops, it pops hard because all investors pull out at once. bitcoin is intrinsically flawed.




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HackOtaku
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's 9.3k now, what are the rules of this? It has to be at or below 8k by the 11th?
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Brolock
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

yfw it shoots back up to beyond 10k by the 11th


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