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Altcoins do not share bitcoin's thesis: beware of fools gold

 
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Clifford
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:01 am    Post subject: Altcoins do not share bitcoin's thesis: beware of fools gold Reply with quote

Be careful of altcoin bubbles, of course you can make a lot of money trading bubbles, but most people will lose money. Altcoins are not a store of value, they are just pump and dump assets feeding off of bitcoin's energy.

99% of the companies were trash in the dotcom bubble, but among them were gems like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon. I expect 99% of these altcoin projects will die, but there are some interesting things happening in the space that shouldn't be brushed off. The NFTs, borrowing and lending platforms, and synthetic stocks particularly strike me as innovative technology, but that's all they are at this point. Even the "good" projects are not stores of value and people bidding the coins up to absurd valuations will be burned eventually.

However, I do have some insight as to how to properly come up with a fair valuation of an altcoin with Metcalfe's law:







A network is generally worth as much as the number of active users squared.

The problem of course with using Metcalfe's law for altcoins is that users disappear as fast as they appear, so the Metcalfe value of a network is highly volatile and unstable over time. And the definition of a "user" is hard to capture due to the anonymous nature of crypto.

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Channel GannoK
pffrt
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 20, 2021 8:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

dude how can you still be this into public humiliations, these are fkn retarded notions that aren't even capable of sticking to a single point.

What exactly is an "altcoin"? I can never get anyone who doesn't just use buzzwords to describe this topic like they don't know anything about crypto in the first place.

A different Cryptocurrency?

Is Ethereum and it's entire new protocol considered to be part of this as well?

The term altcoin is synonymous to pennystock/worthless investment and that bitcoin is like facebook to the average fucking moron like you and race car johnny who just uses their smartphone to browse youtube other shit social media.

You realize that the ACTUAL VALUE that cryptocurrencies derive themselves from include but are not limited to, network and hardware resources required, halving rates, likeliness of 51% attacks, usability in high volume, security(and anonymity for some). all of these have nothing to do with why you're interested in Crypto, rather it's purely financial for you, and you're making stupid as fuck assumptions based on retarded information. you don't even have an interesting take, suitable knowledge, or actual useful information that can be used to speculate future values of crypto currencies, because you fundamentally don't understand how they work.

And for some of these currencies, they execute upon the idea their white papers planned for. this perfectly encapsulates why you have not even read up on some of these "altcoins". Some of them have a framework that allows them to improve upon it, further cementing them as a healthy long term alternative to the now seemingly archaic design of Bitcoin.

What you're witnessing and failing to understand is the infallible fallibility of the USD in the end of it's lifespan, the debt only gets larger and the value only goes down, making crypto values rise by default, not by demand.


Fucking lurk more retard

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Clifford
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 20, 2021 9:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm ballsdeep in this space and have been for years. I'm going to ignore your strawman and ad hominem and reply to your actual arguments.


Channel GannoK wrote:
You realize that the ACTUAL VALUE that cryptocurrencies derive themselves from include but are not limited to, network and hardware resources required, halving rates, likeliness of 51% attacks, usability in high volume, security(and anonymity for some).


Are we talking abstract value or value in dollar terms? Sure their abstract value is how good their utility is to society. But most people in crypto don't use utility tokens, they only intend on leaving them in their wallet and flipping them for financial gain. That's why I called it a bubble, and I said metcalfe's law would be the best way to assign a valuation to them.

And some of the stuff you mentioned doesn't add value anyways. The idea that miners spending money on hardware and energy resources somehow adds intrinsic value to the tokens is the sunken cost fallacy.



Channel GannoK wrote:
What you're witnessing and failing to understand is the infallible fallibility of the USD in the end of it's lifespan, the debt only gets larger and the value only goes down, making crypto values rise by default, not by demand.


USD is supply inflating faster than it ever has, that is the M2 money supply: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2

That upward pressure on assets is slow and consistent. Look at how gracefully Dow Jones and Nasdaq float up, it's usually in sync with M2 money supply. However, altcoins valuations have more in common with gamestop's rise than they do with Bitcoin's rise. Bitcoin is replacing gold in portfolios, altcoins are not. They are definitely pump and dump assets.

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HotHeap
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Idk why anyone listens to retarded Clifford.

Just because he got lucky with bitcoin, doesn’t make anything he says valid.

No such thing as a alt coin when each coin if not just copy and paste has technology pushing forward crypto currency as a whole.

Look at chainlink and PRQ.

both valid coins with goals that are changing the landscape of crypto currency.

No worries, bitcoin is going to fail due to miners, I hope Clifford doesn’t pull out when the mining stops to make his shit worthless
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Clifford
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:30 am    Post subject: Re: Altcoins do not share bitcoin's thesis: beware of fools Reply with quote

Doge is a pointless, hyperinflating, bitcoin clone with infinite supply and now it's exploded in value despite being vaporware. This is not a sound investment and I do not recommend anyone to own this asset, but I'd like to dig a little deeper into the social effects happening here...

Clifford wrote:
A network is generally worth as much as the number of active users squared.


The parabolic price rise in Dogecoin is actually supported by parabolic growth in the community, so much so you could say Dogecoin is undervalued compared to Ethereum and Bitcoin.

Clifford wrote:
The problem of course with using Metcalfe's law for altcoins is that users disappear as fast as they appear, so the Metcalfe value of a network is highly volatile and unstable over time.


^This may be the knee capping element here^ Most altcoins that get spikes in network effect lose most of it once the price drops and stays down for awhile, the price of Dogecoin has only went up since the wave of new users came in.

Dogecoin could actually retain more of it's users in a bear market than other coins. Why? Because most coins only have one dimension of network effect, while Doge's status as both a meme and a coin makes it multidimensional.



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